Sure, in retrospect, we know exactly how many trips it would survive. In retrospect. How does that help?
Without a time machine, you wouldn't know how many test dives to run. And, with a time machine, you wouldn't need to test at all. Again: it degrades with every use. So what if it survived 20 test dives? All that would tell you is that you're 20 dives closer to failure. It would tell you nothing about the next dive being safe.
I suppose you could test one hull until failure and then build another. But, with the amount of corner cutting they were doing, clearly that wouldn't be on the menu. And, even if they did that, assuming the next hull will survive just as many dives wouldn't be reasonable either. There's no way to guarantee that with an experimental production process that involves a material that degrades unpredictably.
Testing only works with things that behave and fail consistently and predictably. The whole thing was doomed from the start, precisely because their material and engineering choices made their system untestable.
GloryBeckons 0 points 1.9 years ago
Sure, in retrospect, we know exactly how many trips it would survive. In retrospect. How does that help?
Without a time machine, you wouldn't know how many test dives to run. And, with a time machine, you wouldn't need to test at all. Again: it degrades with every use. So what if it survived 20 test dives? All that would tell you is that you're 20 dives closer to failure. It would tell you nothing about the next dive being safe.
I suppose you could test one hull until failure and then build another. But, with the amount of corner cutting they were doing, clearly that wouldn't be on the menu. And, even if they did that, assuming the next hull will survive just as many dives wouldn't be reasonable either. There's no way to guarantee that with an experimental production process that involves a material that degrades unpredictably.
Testing only works with things that behave and fail consistently and predictably. The whole thing was doomed from the start, precisely because their material and engineering choices made their system untestable.