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Heres is what the final map will probably look like:
https://pomf2.lain.la/f/4u1zk2xb.png

Based on this:
https://pomf2.lain.la/f/t9zxyscf.png

Found here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_election_results_by_state


I initially left georgia as a wild-card on the theory that once democrats are in office, it becomes hard to overcome them. However, theres another theory, that those states that swung for trump in 2020 will do so again in 2024.
Also georgia is historically red.

I doubled-down on this theory on the basis that if georgia was lock-in for harris she wouldn't have to focus so much on PA. But she is. Thats all we see. And the reason we see that is because her campaigns already decided georgia is all but lost for them.

I put almost no weight in voter sentiment over the last 4-8 years, only going by historic record.
For the bellweather model all the bellwethers stopped being accurate in 2004. They haven't been accurate since, at least on the state level.
This is all about first to 270, nothing else.

Now for counties:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States
With the county bellwether system, you'll note of six presidential selections, they were all wrong.
Thats a collapse in accuracy to just 1.5%

I'd even say they've inverted, becoming a strong indicator of their opposite, at least in the current political configuration of the nation. Ohio, New Mexico, and Missouri, all going for Trump.

Going by just those three bellwethers, thats 32 points up for grab. Of which trump will comfortably claim 27. If the inversion model is correct, thats actually a 84.37% chance against trump, versus about a 1-in-6 chance against harris.

This doesn't account for the times bellwethers are wrong of course, but going by this:
https://pomf2.lain.la/f/ns4kgy95.png

If we multiply the odds and invert them, we get 0.92*0.93*0.96 = 0.821376
prediction accuracy. In other-words, we get a 82.1% accuracy when a candidate carries all three states, or about 1-in-5 odds in the inverted case.

But lets say we don't invert odds, and discounting the cumulative point affects, instead using the bellwhethers as intended.

With trump carrying missouri (96% accuracy, before 2004), and ohio (93% accuracy),
Because odds are always multiplied, we get 0.96*0.93 = 0.8928, or 89.28% chance of winning.
Carrying only NM, harris has a 92% chance of winning.

Of course this isn't exactly how odds work but I digress, its a simple analysis.

Whats that say?

It says either we will see a surprise upset in one of the undecided states, and/or one of the decided states that are 'solid red' or 'solid blue'. Discounting the unlikelihood of that (even considering voter sentiment on immigration, war, and economic policy),

But what are the signals here?
Look at how hard she's campaigning in *fucking pennsylvania*.

Out of the eight last presidential elections, democrats were selected in seven of them.
Only voting red *once*, for *which* president*?
A state thats solid union. A state thats libshit central. The rural vote has become more important here than the city vote. And the republicans put on a strong showing, or at least maga-wearing-the-skinned-face-of-the-worthless-GOP-like-a-hannibal-lecter-mask (lol).

In otherwords, someone on the cocaine-orgy-train known as the kamala campaign realized the same thing I did: the states that voted for trump in 2020 are way more likely than surface appearance, to vote for him again, especially after four years of biden.

So rather than decide it at PA, lets leave PA as a toss-up for a moment.

Lets talk wisconsin and michigan.

For the past eight or nine elections they voted all blue, except again, for one election, donald trump in 2020.

As it stands harris is at 232, and trump is at 262.

Harris would need to take wisconsin, michigan, and PA to win, 6 points over 270.

if trump takes PA, he wins with 281 points, and then even with wisconsin and michigan, harris is only at 257 points.

Even with PA, she is unlikey to also take both wisconsin and michigan considering the last four years of biden, and trump managing to get the unions not to endorse a presidential candidate.

If PA goes blue, and michigan does too (with a last minute turnaround or endorsement of kamala), her campaign finishes with 266 points, and trump with 272.

In other words they're pinned on the fork of a dilemma.
trump only needs to take PA *or* wisconsin.
If kamala takes PA, she has to take michigan *and* wisconsin.

Heres a breakdown for those nodding along:
https://pomf2.lain.la/f/ffly6mpd.png

Under 9 circumstances, theres only one way she gets to 270+.

Now we know what the 'abolish the electoral college' outrage was about.
Now we know what packing the supreme court was about.
Now we know why they're worried about pennsylvania and early voting.

But will don be selected?

Listen I haven't been wrong about a presidential election (or a senate race, or a supreme court pick even despite all the controversy to keep kavanugh or that one catholic DEI convenience-pick whore) since george bush jr.

Heres what I think happens. Conservatively he initially wins the popular by six or seven points.

Voting gets dragged out and goes on for a whole month this time, or maybe three weeks, but longer than it did before in any case.

He 'loses' the popular vote, and wins the electoral vote (because this is how presidential selections work), or it is heavily reported in the media that he lost the popular vote. Whatever the case may be.

We go to war in mid november to late january, either in the middle east, in taiwan and asia, eastern europe, or something happens here in the u.s. to cancel elections (unlikely).

The riot model is rolled out for any number of reasons, take your pick: black church shot up by a 'white straight christian lunatic', another george floyd, another pandemic, cyberattack, whatever, doesn't really matter.

The elections are hotly contested.

One or more supremes either steps down "for personal reasons", or more likely 'switches sides' or is killed or badly injured, deferring to a subordinate.

The radio stations and media feed the flames.

The banks crash the economy under trump to feed it further, and along with the street violence, and threat of war, use it to force concessions from the GOP, politically paralyzing anything trump tries to do, essentially defering power to the mil-intelligence apparatus, not officially, but in practice, like happened under trump before.

And this will be the shape of the elections and the america to come.

Unless a few of the states throw us a curve ball, and swing blue, but given how worried the democrats are about PA, I suspect all their deals already fell through, otherwise they wouldn't be this desperate and afraid.

And this is how presidential selections are made to look like hotly contested presidential elections.

All the fires of hell do not burn as hot as the anger I feel toward this judge.

It's a uniparty.

The Intelligence agencies control the primaries so you don't have options.
Controlling what leaders people can pick is no different than depriving people of their choice to begin with.

It's disenfranchisement.

A government of no authority, no legitimacy, thats gone broke for treason.

Vote with your feet, and all the rights you have under the 12 original amendments.

Anyone here familiar with 1700s french history?

https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2024/10/16/nx-s1-5113976/organ-transplantion-mistake-brain-dead-surgery-still-alive?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

This is the sort of evil going on in regime-funded 'hospitals'.

Of course it was obvious to all of us when these hospitals were murdering patients in mass using remdesivir and ventilation during the lockdowns.

The u.s. government is responsible for mass murder of the citizens. And we are not about to let it go or forgive the officials that followed those orders.

For a proper revolt you have to have a logistics network.
The coalition forming from numerous volunteers, many veterans, is essentially a logistics network in its earliest stages.

But what does this have to do with J6.
Let me explain.

observe all the event surrounding the NC recovery.
The initial firechief incident where a helicopter pilot was threatened with arrest was an inciting event.

Followed by the national guard helicopter event rotor washing volunteers and donations, adding fuel to the fire.

Followed by youtube militias (PNW) and 'muh alt whites' whistlingdiesel building a 'kill dozer'.
Both prominently showing faces, license plates, and putting out messaging that can be construed as "muh covert advocating for terrorism" (according to some variation of the regime's usual bullshit definitions).

So thats normalization of a message, and the message is "militarization is normal, even fun!"

Ask yourself why none of them have been shut down or videos taken down.

I wasn't sure of this until now, but lets dig further.

Look at all the messages coming out of NC. We saw an artificial boost in specifically the fire chief incident, and the rotor wash incident, above and beyond regular outrage, almost like it was being astroturfed. There was a lot of chatter about other incidents of fema and government overreach, but even for the relative scarcity of video (which is unusual) of these incidents, the 'volume' of this chatter was far and away above the number of documented examples. Classic indicator of a propaganda campaign. Take one or two videos, spread second and third hand rumors, and blast them out there continuously for an extended period.

The second thing that had me curious was why the national guard unit doing the rotor wash was being investigated. If it had been ordered, because the u.s. government is malicious and politicized by default, then who-did-what would have promptly disappeared into the memory hole (see the FBI-J6-pipebomb incident for details).

And then it made sense.

The reason kamala did a photo op with loaded recovery supplies (which didn't get sent) is the same reason the national guard did the rotor wash on volunteers, is the same reason several youtube channels are now making adjacent-to-outright-calls-to-arm without being shut down, is the same reason the uniparty doesn't seem overly concerned about the elections.

First, Kamala did the photoshoot with supplies that never got sent because that was the intention. Add fuel to the fire.
The national guard did the rotor wash to add fuel to the fire.
Youtubers encouraging people to arm, and train are no longer being shut down, to add fuel to the fire.

But why?

The leftwing half of the regime cannot get its preferred candidate past the goalposts without causing a larger scale backlash.
They cannot effectively censor or control the narrative on social media. They can't get away with jailing major figures like trump or elon, or any of the others they dislike (but are forced to work with), or get away with lockdowns again--

not without a major inciting incident that is.

Lets unravel the narrative and the events on the ground:

FEMA failed because it dragged its feet for political reasons.

In response to this volunteers came to the rescue in droves.

In response to *that*, FEMA tried to stop them because it interfered in prefered-vendor bribery networks.

As a result of that veterans spontenously coalesced on the issue.

These veterans then organized into a proto-logistics network.

This scared the shit out of the federal government because now there were 1. armed, 2. trained, 3. experienced men generating way more chatter and breaking bread over their long-time dissatisfaction with the general behavior and criminality of the u.s. government and its sundry domestic police and intelligence arms.

The veterans seeing various attempts to shut both the public volunteers down and themselves, saw the fire chief incident as emblematic of FEMAs response as a whole.

Chatter grew and national guard units joined.

One of those units was the rotor wash guys. Their job wasn't to rotor wash on behalf of the u.s. government in some sort of petty and utterly disgusting harassment campaign against volunteers. No. Their job was to do this on camera, *knowing the u.s. government and fema would be blamed for this*.
And they were put up to this by a militia or even just a small handful of veterans who realized the fire-chief incident was the perfect start of a conflagration, which they could pour gasoline onto.

How do I know?

Because if the national guard were sent by FEMA, or the democrats, or even repubs looking to score electoral points by setting-up 'bowling pin' issues, then they wouldn't have had anything to fear. They wouldn't have covered their faces at all.

But they did because this was a rogue unit doing something on behalf of a veteran, a veteran's run logistics network, and/or a militia that evolved from the volunteer efforts in NC in response to FEMA and local authority's malice and incompetence.

Now for the why:

As I said, the uniparty can't get kamala past the goal posts, and their preferred candidates in the senate are going to lose on the numbers, unless selected outright (falsified poll numbers in a big push), all of which will lead to an even bigger shitstorm down the line.

And what does the regime do when it can't control a situation? They double down on existing playbooks.

The problem they have post-election is all the disaffected veterans they kicked out over the jab.

The solution? Mass arrest.

But how to do that?

They're not gonna be all caught unarmed like sitting ducks rounded up at a political protest, nor be fooled into following a simple 'boomerwaffen' fbi-informant retard like the J6 were.

They can't get away with lockdowns again, not without people just ignoring it this time and showing it as an empty mandate. They can't get away with mass censorship again without it being treated as election interference and provoking a big ass backlash (politically) like it did.

So in comes the 'militia and guerilla revolt'. Small-scale. Regional. Something that can be pumped up, gather a lot of guys itching for retribution and a good fight, guys with military experience.....and then shut down in one big push.

And thats how you drain the resources and manpower from any veteran-organized insurgency post-election.

I'll provide any additional details if or when I receive any new info on this.

It is more significant than prior cryptographic work both in progress and impact.
That is all for now.

diclaimer: I don't endorse violence or lawlesness.

Just observing the public sentiment.

https://files.catbox.moe/un45kd.png
https://pomf2.lain.la/f/fimvjzfs.png