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Actually, I agree with you that it's more likely not to be total extinction, and instead, just a very high percentage of humans being gone.

The folks surviving won't hang on because of any greater genetically-driven intelligence, but just because of dumb luck. So I also agree that the next round is just as likely to fail.

Anyone who brings children into the world and refuses to devote a large amount of time and effort to teach them critical thinking skills and methods for separating facts from lies, knee-jerk emotionalism, and delusion is hastening the demise of most of the human race.