So, basically I've come to several conclusions on my research lately.
1.) The current economic bottleneck is the railway system.
The railways have been running a Lean system for at least 4 years now. They are no longer concerned about customer service or the devastation they are creating. Rather, they're attempting to cut down on operational costs and take only extremely profitable contracts. This is to entice investors and raise share prices. The same thing I've seen starting with GE and going everywhere. This destroys industries.
This bottleneck is causing other industries like chemical refining to drop performance because they are not getting ingredients on time. Refineries require ingredients to be there to operate. They are still even a system that has storage capacity on input and output to deal with transit bumps and delays. When a refinery has to shut down it costs them a lot of money. The railway system has been fucking them over hard and have gone to the point that refineries are desperate to move their product and get ingredients.
2.) There are currently no shortages
We have everything we need as a country in the US. In fact, we've been having a strong economic year that it has pushed everything into inflation. Demand was running hot as was production.
3.) The ports are full because of the railways
We've been hearing for some time that the ports are backed up. For several reasons. But, the ports are backed up because they're not cleared. Rail lines used to support ports in a timely manner. This is no longer the case, which is hosing over the ports.
4.) The FED
The fed is seeing that inflation is high because demand is high (people are being productive, and thereby had cash) and supply is low (goods were not getting to supply centers). So, instead of investing on cleaning up the bottlenecks in the economy they're going to crash demand.
What does this mean. Raise interest rates to kill the housing market / auto industry. This will not help with diesel prices, but the diesel prices will kill trucking which will lower supply farther.
In essence. They're going to crash the economy, and it's going to spiral down until nobody can afford to buy anything. This will cause a lot of people to be unemployed.
5.) Why the crash
The FED is too stupid to look for the economic bottleneck. The government just heard about it and will do nothing. The railway is making a killing and will not do the right thing.
We're all fucked because of LEAN being placed where it shouldn't.
6.) The cover up
Vanguard and Blackrock own major shares in the railway systems and the media. You can figure out why they wouldn't want you to understand why everything is going to shit.
Vanguard and Blackrock own a share in everything though. Tanking the broad economy for rail profits would be the level of reasoning/foresight of a four year old.
Poor data. You seem to think these guys play out more of a simulation when in reality they're working with stock indicators very similarly stupid like the macd.
Any of you read Atlas Shrugged? Yeah I know, its by Kike Rand. Still. It describes a world going to shit where cronyism has gone rampant and the railways don't run. Nothing is getting delivered so that even the productive portion of society can't get shit done. Sort of a 1984 for the elite maybe? Whatever, I'm going to sleep.
Supply chain issues are a piece of the puzzle, but only a rather small one.
The real cause of the inflation is the mass printing of money, in the form of quantitative easing, stimulus checks, debt moratoriums, etc.
The economy wasn't and isn't strong. It is considerably less productive, not more. Because it was absolutely devastated by unprecedented lockdowns, mandates, and mass firings. It was just too high on free cash flow to feel it. The high is wearing off, and now comes the pain.
You're right that the Fed is (or appears to be) oblivious to this, and their actions will only make the crash worse.
They printed money : They printed about $3T that huge spike in the M1 graph is them changing the rules on the savings account limit from 6 to infinite. This then shifted money from being m2 (checking) to m1 (savings). In perspective, the pentagon has "lost" something between $5-25T and the inflation didn't do shit.
moratoriums Ok, this one fucked small landlords a lot. I mean landlords living in their cars fucked. That's inflationary to people's rent as they're paying for themselves and the bum that lived in the other unit. This is relatively a net zero.
The economy wasn't/isn't strong. Bullshit.... It is considerably less productive. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IQ <- proof of bullshit absolutely devastated by unprecedented lockdowns <- shift crap from the low end service sector, also work from home mandates <- zero effect other then killing random portions of the workforce. mass firings <- usually the bottom 20% on productivity thereby raising productivity
They printed a hell of a lot more than that. Not sure where you're getting $3T.
M1 chart was rendered useless when they made the change, coincidentally exactly as the crisis hit full swing, obscuring what is going on. The spike in M2 is a better indicator, showing a rise of more than $6T over the past 2 years, but that is still incomplete. For example, M2 does not show all of the money they injected directly into institutional funds via running up their balance sheet. You can see that increasing by around $5T here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
That's still not the full picture, but it gets you a little closer.
Stimulus checks kept things floating as people shifted jobs.
I'm talking about the economic impact of handing out freshly minted cash to everyone and their dog, and you're giving me a feel-good election talking point lifted straight from CNN. Hey, why don't we just hand everyone a free $5000 check every month, that'll "keep things floating" for sure. We'll be positively soaring.
This is relatively a net zero.
Everything is net zero over a long enough time scale. Conservation of energy, heat death of the universe, and all that.
The point is that, by allowing millions of people to not pay rent and to stop making payments on their loans, that left a lot of free cash in their pockets which wouldn't and shouldn't have been there. Which they then spend on other things. Which in turn creates the illusion of a booming economy, devalues the currency since there's more of it in circulation, and drives up inflation since companies will reflexively charge more when consumers can spend more to make their investors happy.
Guess what happens to prices when you print a metric crap ton of money, while simultaneously crippling global production and transportation?
That's what that graph is showing. Not a strong economy. But one that is in its death throes, high as a kite on debased liquidity, and about to crash and burn as the high inevitably wears off.
Thank you for having the patience to put this together.
It makes sense I just never thought of it being the rail systems.but yeah those videos from where people are taping at the ports saying everything's going to waste and they have orders to not put out ... Yeah no point in pulling it out if there's nothing for it to go onto .
I just don't think they don't see it if this is what it is ,it is so being done intentionally.
To an extent I agree. The US economy has been held in check for about thirty years now. The dot com bust. The federal reserve and all economies have a problem with anyplace having larger then 4% growth rate. It freaks them out a lot.
I think the covid lockdowns should have tapered off the economy heavily. In useless sectors it did. But, with remote work still possible and being highly productive I think more productivity then they expected took place. Probably why they're trying to kill remote work in general.
But, never overlook the possibility of greed and stupidity wrecking shit. I've seen it too often where a CEO will destroy a sustainably profitable company for a couple years worth of record highs and bails before the crash.
But, never overlook the possibility of greed and stupidity wrecking shit. I've seen it too often where a CEO will destroy a sustainably profitable company for a couple years worth of record highs and bails before the crash.
That's not incorrect, but a CEO is a tiny player compared to the people pulling the strings of the economy. Compared to them, the CEOs are just useful idiots who are playing the part they are intended to. So yes, the CEOs can be greedy and stupid, but that's why they were allowed to be CEOs...it was known they would do that, and act exactly as the people pulling the economy's strings needed them to.
[ + ] taoV
[ - ] taoV 0 points 2.9 yearsMay 24, 2022 15:59:36 ago (+0/-0)
[ + ] patchCodeUnsuccessful
[ - ] patchCodeUnsuccessful [op] 2 points 2.9 yearsMay 24, 2022 16:22:05 ago (+2/-0)
Poor data. You seem to think these guys play out more of a simulation when in reality they're working with stock indicators very similarly stupid like the macd.
[ + ] Metanoid
[ - ] Metanoid 2 points 2.9 yearsMay 24, 2022 18:16:28 ago (+2/-0)
[ + ] GloryBeckons
[ - ] GloryBeckons 3 points 2.9 yearsMay 24, 2022 16:46:52 ago (+3/-0)
The real cause of the inflation is the mass printing of money, in the form of quantitative easing, stimulus checks, debt moratoriums, etc.
The economy wasn't and isn't strong. It is considerably less productive, not more. Because it was absolutely devastated by unprecedented lockdowns, mandates, and mass firings. It was just too high on free cash flow to feel it. The high is wearing off, and now comes the pain.
You're right that the Fed is (or appears to be) oblivious to this, and their actions will only make the crash worse.
[ + ] patchCodeUnsuccessful
[ - ] patchCodeUnsuccessful [op] 0 points 2.9 yearsMay 24, 2022 19:48:06 ago (+0/-0)
Stimulus checks kept things floating as people shifted jobs. Forbes had an interesting graph on what people used the cash on.
https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/60b58b361120e5557ed5cd41/stimulus-checks/960x0.jpg
moratoriums
Ok, this one fucked small landlords a lot. I mean landlords living in their cars fucked. That's inflationary to people's rent as they're paying for themselves and the bum that lived in the other unit. This is relatively a net zero.
The economy wasn't/isn't strong. Bullshit....
It is considerably less productive. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IQ <- proof of bullshit
absolutely devastated by unprecedented lockdowns <- shift crap from the low end service sector, also work from home
mandates <- zero effect other then killing random portions of the workforce.
mass firings <- usually the bottom 20% on productivity thereby raising productivity
[ + ] GloryBeckons
[ - ] GloryBeckons 1 point 2.9 yearsMay 25, 2022 06:10:35 ago (+1/-0)
They printed a hell of a lot more than that. Not sure where you're getting $3T.
M1 chart was rendered useless when they made the change, coincidentally exactly as the crisis hit full swing, obscuring what is going on. The spike in M2 is a better indicator, showing a rise of more than $6T over the past 2 years, but that is still incomplete. For example, M2 does not show all of the money they injected directly into institutional funds via running up their balance sheet. You can see that increasing by around $5T here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
That's still not the full picture, but it gets you a little closer.
I'm talking about the economic impact of handing out freshly minted cash to everyone and their dog, and you're giving me a feel-good election talking point lifted straight from CNN. Hey, why don't we just hand everyone a free $5000 check every month, that'll "keep things floating" for sure. We'll be positively soaring.
Everything is net zero over a long enough time scale. Conservation of energy, heat death of the universe, and all that.
The point is that, by allowing millions of people to not pay rent and to stop making payments on their loans, that left a lot of free cash in their pockets which wouldn't and shouldn't have been there. Which they then spend on other things. Which in turn creates the illusion of a booming economy, devalues the currency since there's more of it in circulation, and drives up inflation since companies will reflexively charge more when consumers can spend more to make their investors happy.
A price index, such as IQ, shows "average changes in prices of goods and services" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Import_and_Export_Price_Indexes
Average changes. In prices. Prices.
Guess what happens to prices when you print a metric crap ton of money, while simultaneously crippling global production and transportation?
That's what that graph is showing. Not a strong economy. But one that is in its death throes, high as a kite on debased liquidity, and about to crash and burn as the high inevitably wears off.
[ + ] patchCodeUnsuccessful
[ - ] patchCodeUnsuccessful [op] 1 point 2.9 yearsMay 25, 2022 10:08:12 ago (+1/-0)
[ + ] Gowithit
[ - ] Gowithit 4 points 2.9 yearsMay 24, 2022 14:57:12 ago (+4/-0)
It makes sense I just never thought of it being the rail systems.but yeah those videos from where people are taping at the ports saying everything's going to waste and they have orders to not put out ... Yeah no point in pulling it out if there's nothing for it to go onto .
I just don't think they don't see it if this is what it is ,it is so being done intentionally.
[ + ] patchCodeUnsuccessful
[ - ] patchCodeUnsuccessful [op] 4 points 2.9 yearsMay 24, 2022 16:18:44 ago (+4/-0)
To an extent I agree. The US economy has been held in check for about thirty years now. The dot com bust. The federal reserve and all economies have a problem with anyplace having larger then 4% growth rate. It freaks them out a lot.
I think the covid lockdowns should have tapered off the economy heavily. In useless sectors it did. But, with remote work still possible and being highly productive I think more productivity then they expected took place. Probably why they're trying to kill remote work in general.
But, never overlook the possibility of greed and stupidity wrecking shit. I've seen it too often where a CEO will destroy a sustainably profitable company for a couple years worth of record highs and bails before the crash.
[ + ] we_kill_creativity
[ - ] we_kill_creativity 0 points 2.9 yearsMay 25, 2022 06:21:09 ago (+0/-0)
That's not incorrect, but a CEO is a tiny player compared to the people pulling the strings of the economy. Compared to them, the CEOs are just useful idiots who are playing the part they are intended to. So yes, the CEOs can be greedy and stupid, but that's why they were allowed to be CEOs...it was known they would do that, and act exactly as the people pulling the economy's strings needed them to.