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Trump is running as high as a 64% chance to win the Electoral College in Nate Silver's prediction model

submitted by Joe_McCarthy to OccidentalEnclave 9 monthsSep 16, 2024 15:30:44 ago (+5/-2)     (OccidentalEnclave)



7 comments block

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[ - ] Joe_McCarthy [op] 0 points 9 monthsSep 16, 2024 15:33:08 ago (+0/-0)

This must be an 'it's not the Jews' conspiracy to get Trump elected.

https://www.upgoat.net/viewpost?postid=65d5009baaf62

[ - ] FreeinTX 1 point 9 monthsSep 16, 2024 15:47:49 ago (+1/-0)

Palantir took their entire board of directors to Israel after October 7th.

[ - ] FreeinTX 0 points 9 monthsSep 16, 2024 15:47:06 ago (+0/-0)

Palantir's prediction model.

[ - ] Osmanthus 0 points 9 monthsSep 16, 2024 15:56:24 ago (+0/-0)

It's gibberish.
Anytime they say the "run a model" a bunch of times and get a percentage it's garbage.
Same shit for climate models.

It is alarming how bad people are at math.

[ - ] bonghits4jeebus 0 points 9 monthsSep 16, 2024 17:08:07 ago (+0/-0)

Polymaket good tho because I like people who put their money where their mouth is. I actually believe in the power of crowdsourced predictions.

[ - ] BloodyComet 0 points 9 monthsSep 16, 2024 19:55:22 ago (+0/-0)

"Run a model" makes me think of "Stop the tape- zoom, enhance!" tropes. I think it fits right in there.

[ - ] BloodyComet 0 points 9 monthsSep 16, 2024 19:53:56 ago (+0/-0)

There is absolutely no fucking way that more people vote for Harris than Trump. It's absurd to pretend it's even going to be close.

But hey, that is how ALL of our elections are- rigged, and made to look like razor close victories, regardless of how abominable either candidate is. It's always like 52-48%. I think a realistic number for this election would be something like 75-25 in favor of Trump, but it won't be.