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Whoever in the Russian intelligence circuit is advising putin is either making a strategic error or advising him with malicious intent.
Yes, the fall of Assad will worsen the immigration problem in europe, to the benefit of Russia, but these are problems that are proveably manageable if the europols decide to do so.

Likely the failure to defend Assad is an intentional gambit to split off other allies of Russia.

I'd put money on backchannel communications having already happened between the west and north korea, something along the lines of "if putin won't defend assad, what makes you think russia will come to your rescue? Just watch." with the attendant hand-rubbing.

So the strategic goal here is to divide russia from its allies.

If Russia is smart, they won't accept the vague and generalized handwaving about the U.s. and west luring them into a "two front war."

The blob always retreats when it meets too heavy a resistance, or doubles down.

This is a variation of the blitzkreig they're engaging in. The achilles heel here, is as then, that pushing through it will leave those backing the insurgency in syria at a fatal disadvantage.

If russia chooses to accept the war in syria and go in, the lines in ukraine will likely collapse. Why else would the u.s. and west be willing to open up a two-front war if they weren't desperate in ukraine?