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An untrustworthy group saying another is untrustworthy isn't proof of the opposite.
It's a heuristic, and like all rules of thumb, can and will be wrong on more than one occasion.

If putin accepts a ceasefire there are three possible conclusions 1. he's an idiot, 2. this war was agreed to before hand for the purposes of genociding the ukrainians, 3. russia is in a worse spot than they claim.

As number one is highly, unlikely, and number three is also unlikely, that leaves number two.

The russians may be worried about a real world war three, but the long-and-short of it the u.s. will lose that war. barring that, the russians will be forced into a forever war, and asked for a cease fire every time ukraine is losing going forward.

The russians hope by avoiding war, they can use cease-fires as a negotiation tactic to implement political attrition over military attrition against the west.

If it looks like that strategy is ever going to win the west will, at some point, decide to commit to a massive attack against russia, be it europe carrying it out or the u.s.

This is a stalling tactic by russia.

If the u.s. and the west are stalling, they know all of this too, which suggests they have something else in the works because we always double down. Therefore if desperate measures always finally resort in 'last measures', we can conclude whatever the west is planning is designed to 1. utterly devastate russia in a non-recoverable way, 2. will be carried out at the end of this initial cease-fire.

We can conclude therefore russia knows this, and if they accept the cease fire, then they are planning their own major move before the conclusion of the cease-fire.

On the otherhand, if they accept the ceasefire and nothing comes of it but a resumption of the same intensity of conflict, then by contrapositive we can conclude the entire war was orchestrated for the purpose of ethnically cleansing ukrainians, with dead russians as a byproduct, being considered "acceptable losses" by their own government.

Naturally this information is useful, sorting out whether the russian's are serving the russian people's interests, or some other, internationalist interests at the expense of their own citizens, which would be unacceptable. Those who go to war with no intention of winning commit one of the most serious of errors. Leaders must be as serious as they are committed, even if it means the destruction of the whole world as a result. Because warfare is the process by which the scales are balanced, how civilization historically engaged in eugenics, so to meddle in the process by entering with no intention to win, they pollute the results and reduce the genetic fitness of the world as a result.