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If putin accepts a ceasefire there are three possible conclusions 1. he's an idiot, 2. this war was agreed to before hand for the purposes of genociding the ukrainians, 3. russia is in a worse spot than they claim and preparing an alternative solution.

As number one is highly, unlikely, and number three is also unlikely, that leaves number two.

The russian's may be worried about a real world war three, but the the long-and-short of it the u.s. will lose that war. barring that, the russians will be forced into a forever war, and asked for a cease fire every time ukraine is losing going forward.

The russians hope by avoiding war, they can use cease-fires as a negotiation tactic to implement political attrition over military attrition against the west.

If it looks like that strategy is ever going to win the west will, at some point, decide to commit to a massive attack against russia, be it europe carrying it out or the u.s.

This is a stalling tactic by russia.

If the u.s. and the west are stalling, they know all of this too, which suggests they have something else in the works because we always double down. Therefore if desperate measures always finally resort in 'last measures', we can conclude whatever the west is planning is designed to 1. utterly devastate russia in a non-recoverable way, 2. will be carried out at the end of this initial cease-fire.

We can conclude therefore russia knows this, and if they accept the cease fire, then they are planning their own major move before the conclusion of the cease-fire.

If russia accepts the cease fire, and at the end of the cease-fire (or leading up to the resumption of hostility) theres no major event, we can safely conclude the ukrainian war has been a genocide mutually agreed on by all powers involved.