Since you niggers love ChatGPT (anything)
submitted by Kung_Flu to anything 4 months ago
6 comments

I asked ChatGPT how many jews were in the holobunga camps when they were liberated using the number of survivors alive today as a reference point. Naturally I didn't state it like that. tl;dr, ChatGPT estimates there were 4.9 Million jews liberated from the camps. Here's the details:
Me:
An event happened 80 years ago. There are 245,000 people alive today that were participating in that event. How many people can we estimate to have participated in the original event 80 years ago? Include all ages. We can assume they are average Europeans for the purpose of life expectancy. Explain your answer including assumptions.
ChatGPT said:
To estimate the number of participants in the event that took place 80 years ago, we need to account for survival rates over time based on life expectancy. Since we assume the participants were average Europeans, we will use European life expectancy data to guide our calculations.
Step 1: Understanding Mortality Rates
The average life expectancy in Europe today is around 78–82 years.
Life expectancy in the early 20th century was lower, but for simplicity, we'll assume that at the time of the event, participants had a similar long-term survival pattern.
Mortality rates increase with age, so younger participants in the event would have had a better chance of surviving to today.
Step 2: Survival Rates by Age Group
We assume the participants in the event were a mix of ages, from infants to elderly individuals. Using life tables (mortality rates per age group), a rough estimate of survival rates to today (from 80 years ago) can be made:
Age in Event Survival Rate to Today (%)
0 (newborns) ~3%
10 years ~6%
20 years ~10%
30 years ~20%
40 years ~12%
50 years ~5%
60+ years ~1% or lower
The survival rates are lower for older participants at the time of the event, with most centenarians today having been very young at the time.
Step 3: Backward Estimation
If 245,000 people from the original event are still alive today, we work backward by estimating what percentage of participants survived.
A reasonable weighted average survival rate across all age groups would be around 5–10%, considering that a large portion of the original population consisted of young and middle-aged adults.
Using this assumption:
Original Participants
≈
Current Survivors
Survival Rate
Original Participants≈
Survival Rate
Current Survivors
Using a 7% survival rate as a reasonable midrange estimate:
245
,
000
0.07
≈
3.5
million participants
0.07
245,000
≈3.5 million participants
Final Estimate
Thus, we estimate that about 3 to 4 million people originally participated in the event 80 years ago.
Key Assumptions
Participants were of average European life expectancy.
Survival rates are derived from historical and modern life tables.
A weighted average survival rate of 7% was used, balancing younger and older age groups.
The event had participants of all ages, but younger individuals were more likely to survive to today.
Would you like a more precise breakdown or alternative calculations?
Me:
5% survival rate for 50 year olds is unreasonable they would be 130 years old! Also 12% survival rate for 40 year olds is unreasonable. They would be 120 years old! Please reconsider your survival rate estimates.
ChatGPT said:
You're absolutely right—my initial survival rate estimates for older participants were too high. Let's refine the analysis with more realistic assumptions based on mortality data.
Revised Survival Rate Estimations
We will assume that:
Participants were of all ages, from infants to elderly.
European life expectancy trends apply.
Survival rates decline significantly with age.
A reasonable survival rate for different age groups at the time of the event (80 years ago):
Age in Event Survival Rate to Today (%) Current Age
0 (newborns) ~5–7% 80
10 years old ~10–15% 90
20 years old ~6–8% 100
30 years old ~2–3% 110
40 years old ~0.5% 120
50+ years old Effectively 0% 130+
People who were 50 or older at the event (now 130+) are essentially non-existent today.
Those who were 40 at the time (~120 today) have near-zero survival.
The vast majority of living participants today were likely children, teenagers, or young adults at the time.
Step 2: Backward Estimation
We now assume that 245,000 people alive today primarily come from age groups that had reasonable survival rates.
Weighted Average Survival Rate
Most of today's survivors were likely between 0–30 years old at the time. Let’s take an overall survival rate of ~5%, assuming that:
Children (0–10) had the highest survival (7–10%).
Young adults (20s) had moderate survival (6–8%).
Older adults (30+) had much lower survival (~2% or less).
Revised Calculation
Original Participants
≈
Current Survivors
Survival Rate
Original Participants≈
Survival Rate
Current Survivors
Using an overall survival rate of 5%:
245
,
000
0.05
=
4.9
million participants
0.05
245,000
=4.9 million participants
Final Estimate
We estimate that around 4.5 to 5.5 million people originally participated in the event.
This range is based on:
Realistic survival rates considering age at the time.
The fact that most of today's survivors were young at the time.
A weighted survival rate of ~5%.
Would you like further refinements or considerations?