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Down turns in price can gather serious momentum rapidly.

So in the 2008 housing crisis housing prices were artificially inflated because people could get no money down loans who could not pay them back and everybody could do it so there was a constant for a number of years cycling of homes being sold for more than they were purchased for the last time.

So it wasn't just that the interest rates were high or low during 2008. It was the fact that there were no qualifying loans they were called signature loans liar loans and other things. That's why the prices went up so much and when those ended that's why the prices went down. And they stayed down in the markets that had been over inflated specifically Southern California Orange county and others were the primary drivers of all this and accounted for something like 80% of the value of all overvalued homes. It's important to note that in other states the housing prices stagnated but they didn't actually go down because they weren't ballooned like certain places like Southern california.


So today we don't really have that because we never had the liar loan scenario.

We did have extremely low interest rates but the people who were buying still had to qualify for the loans and so housing prices while they did go up far too much they did not go up to the same extreme as they did in 2008 and the pool of buyers are approximately the same as the pool of buyers were last time. Furthermore the buyers this time could actually qualify to pay their mortgages therefore unlike the ones in 2008 who were counting on flipping their houses to be able to make money the buyers of the last five years actually can continue to pay their mortgages for the most part so you won't see the vast amount of foreclosures and prices going down like you did after 2008.

What you will see and what you are see is perversely not a lot of houses on the market because those people who locked in the low interest rates cannot afford to sell their houses today and buy a new house for the same monthly payment so they're not getting rid of their old house. What this means is there's a short of a shortage of houses on the market which ironically works to keep housing prices higher. Furthermore just like in 2008 many many states are not going to see a decline in housing prices at all in fact are still seeing housing prices rise. These are the so-called red States where people are moving to get away from high taxes in places like california. You're actually seeing housing prices continue to rise in many of the red States like Florida Tennessee and others we're housing prices are still going up five to eight or more percent per year.


So I really don't see a drastic decline in home prices coming from all of this. What I do see is houses staying longer on the market. That artificially keeps the housing prices higher because there's less inventory. It's going to be harder to qualify for a loan so a lot of people are going to be forced into renting instead of buying. And houses that are for sale will probably be on that on the market longer because in order to get the price to pay off the loan that the current owner has they're going to have to wait until a buyer comes along who can afford a larger monthly payment then they made because interest rates will make the monthly payment higher.

Now it's also important to notice that the dollar is losing real value and while that happens interest rates can continue to go up. Remember that in the late 60s and 70s interest rates were in the double digits. And it was not considered unusual for interest rates to be in the double digits. I'm talking Home loans now not credit card rates. And that is still a possibility. People think that it's normal to have 1% interest rates on homes and it's not. 0% 1% 2% is not normal for home loans. Maybe 7 to 8% is normal so that means the ricochet on the high side can easily go into the double digits again.

The commies are right on this one, we do need to kill the rich.

Buy when the house is cheap. Refinance when rates are low. It might take 10 years, but the opportunity will present itself.

I would rent otherwise and plan your moves accordingly. Lose your deposit if you need to get out of a rental.

Again- buy when the market is cheap, refinance when the market drops. Very few people will be buying so you will feel crazy. You may have to lose some cash up front on interest already paid when you refinance but it will come around on the back end.

Here's the game:
- house exist and someone wants to sell
- real estate agents find comparable houses that have sold recently to determine price
- banks will not sign off on a mortgage unless an appraiser determines the value of the property is more than the mortgage amount

So, in short, you'll see prices correct in areas that nobody wants to be, where there is a continual pattern of properties selling for less so the seller can get what they're able and get out. Excessive supply also helps...if literally nobody has money, you'll sell for what you can.

Yeah, I'll never own a home. I know. Whatever. If literally anyone did anything after 1945 I wouldn't have to worry about it, but now it's too late for that.

Oh well. Glad I don't have any kids.

Prices never go back down, they plateau

Such as?